IMF: Beyond Inflation: Central Banks, Household Recovery, and Financial Survival

An IMF note on forward guidance provides the starting point for a broader assessment of monetary policy through people’s incomes, savings, employment, and capacity to withstand a crisis.

Part I — The IMF Note: Communicating Policy Under Uncertainty

Tobias Adrian’s Current Issues in Forward Guidance, published in August 2026 as IMF Note 2026/008, examines how central banks should communicate future monetary policy under uncertainty. It represents the author’s analysis rather than an official policy position of the IMF.

Its central argument is that central banks should explain how they will respond to changing conditions while avoiding promises that unnecessarily constrain future decisions.

Conditional commitments and clear decisions

Forward guidance influences current financial conditions by shaping expectations about future interest rates. Near the effective lower bound, a credible commitment to keep rates low can encourage spending and investment. But a commitment designed for weak demand can become inappropriate after a persistent inflationary shock. Maintaining it may compromise price stability; reversing it may damage credibility.

Adrian therefore argues that commitments should remain conditional and subordinate to the central bank’s mandate. Authorities should identify the circumstances under which policy could change and explain which indicators matter. Saying that decisions are “data dependent” is insufficient without explaining how the data are interpreted.

For example, a temporary energy disruption may warrant a different response from persistent inflation driven by excessive demand or changes in expectations. Communication should clarify those mechanisms without implying that a single indicator determines the next rate decision.

Financial stability, emergency liquidity, and scenarios

Predictable financing and low measured volatility can encourage intermediaries to borrow more and finance long-term assets with short-term liabilities. Such positions become vulnerable when funding costs rise or lenders withdraw. Communication that suppresses uncertainty too aggressively can therefore contribute to financial fragility.

Adrian also distinguishes emergency liquidity from monetary easing. A central bank can support payments and funding markets while maintaining restrictive rates to control inflation. Emergency assistance should not automatically be interpreted as a commitment to permanently cheaper money.

Finally, a limited set of alternative scenarios can explain how policy might respond to persistent inflation, weaker demand, commodity shocks, or financial stress. Asset purchases likewise require clarity about purpose, conditions, and eventual adjustment. Adrian warns that automated analysis and AI-generated summaries may strip away qualifications and turn a conditional assessment into an apparently unconditional promise.

Part II — Our Analysis: Monetary Policy Through People’s Lives

The following analysis is independent of Adrian’s conclusions. Historical findings are linked to their sources; the evaluation criteria and conditional scenarios are our interpretation.

The central question is how monetary decisions change living conditions, who receives the benefits, and who absorbs the costs. Inflation, employment, financial stability, and institutional credibility matter because they affect people’s ability to live from their work, preserve savings, obtain necessities, and plan their future.

1. How Central Banks, Money Creation, and Interest Rates Affect Daily Life

What a central bank does

A central bank supplies settlement money to the banking system and influences monetary conditions. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s monetary responsibilities include maximum employment and price stability, alongside financial-stability, supervisory, and payment-system functions. Governments determine fiscal policy, including taxation, expenditure, and transfers. Federal Reserve: Monetary Policy Goals and Transmission.

Its principal instruments serve distinct purposes:

• Policy and administered rates influence short-term financing costs and incentives to borrow, lend, and save.

• Market operations and balance-sheet policies affect reserves, longer-term yields, and broader financial conditions.

• Liquidity facilities provide funding against eligible collateral under specified conditions.

• Communication influences expectations about future policy and can change financing conditions before the next rate decision.

These instruments can be used in different combinations. Federal Reserve: Policy Tools.

Raising rates changes financing costs, valuations, and spending incentives; it does not mechanically withdraw an equivalent quantity of household money from circulation. Floating-rate borrowers and those refinancing may feel the effect quickly, while existing fixed-rate borrowers may be less immediately exposed. Savers can receive higher interest income, while firms may postpone investment or hiring. Federal Reserve: Monetary Policy Goals and Transmission.

Why M2 growth is not proportional to consumer-price inflation

Central-bank money includes currency and bank reserves. Broader monetary aggregates also include deposits held by the public. Commercial-bank lending can create deposits, subject to capital, liquidity, credit risk, demand, and monetary conditions. Broad money is therefore not simply a measure of government printing or spending. Bank of England: Money Creation in the Modern Economy.

M2 is a stock of monetary assets, not a flow of purchases at shops. Additional balances can be retained, used to repay debt, or exchanged for existing assets. In an asset purchase, money generally changes hands; it does not necessarily disappear. The effect on consumption depends on subsequent decisions.

The identity MV = PY organizes these relationships: money multiplied by its income velocity equals nominal output. Here, P is an output price measure, not automatically the CPI. The identity does not establish causation or provide a fixed conversion from M2 growth to inflation.

If people retain larger balances, velocity can decline. If confidence in holding money deteriorates, spending can accelerate relative to those balances. Additional demand can support output when productive capacity is available, while supply constraints can direct more pressure toward prices.

Lower rates can encourage borrowing without increasing confidence in the currency. Demand for credit and willingness to retain domestic money are different decisions. The relevant question is whether cheaper financing supports sustainable production and income or leaves households with higher prices and debt burdens. M2 alone cannot quantify its contribution to CPI inflation; credit, money demand, fiscal policy, output, supply shocks, and timing also matter.

Historical example: liquidity support and a rate increase in March 2023

On March 12, 2023, the Fed announced the Bank Term Funding Program, offering eligible institutions loans against qualifying securities valued at par. This reduced the need to sell securities immediately during funding stress. Ten days later, the FOMC raised its policy-rate target range to 4.75–5.00% while maintaining its balance-sheet reduction policy. Federal Reserve: BTFP Announcement; Federal Reserve: March 22 FOMC Statement.

Authorities sought to preserve access to banking services while keeping borrowing conditions restrictive. The case demonstrates that liquidity provision and rate easing are distinct decisions. It does not settle whether every support term was appropriately priced or whether assistance created incentives for future risk-taking.

2. Household Recovery: Earning More Is Not the Same as Recovering What Was Lost

Inflation between working, receiving payment, and spending

For employees paid monthly in arrears, inflation can erode an agreed salary while they are still performing the work. An illustrative salary of 100,000 monetary units, fixed at the start of a month in which prices rise 20%, buys the equivalent of approximately 83,333 units at beginning-of-month prices when paid: a 16.7% loss against that reference basket.

Payment schedules, wage adjustments, and spending patterns differ. The mechanism remains important: people can deliver their labor under one set of prices and receive compensation under another. Further erosion can occur between payday and the purchase of necessities.

Lower inflation slows this process but does not automatically reverse previous losses. Household recovery has several thresholds: the contraction ends, incomes start growing, earlier living standards are restored, and financial reserves are rebuilt.

Historical example: the US recovery after 2007–2009

The recession ended in June 2009. Yet the Census Bureau’s 2015 report found that real median household income remained 1.6% below 2007, despite increasing 5.2% from 2014. The official poverty rate was 13.5%, one percentage point above 2007. These are the contemporary report’s estimates, rather than a mixture of later revised series. Federal Reserve History: The Great Recession; Census Bureau: Income and Poverty in 2015.

Wealth followed a separate path. The Federal Reserve reported a 38.8% decline in real median family net worth between 2007 and 2010, from $126,400 to $77,300 in 2010 dollars. Restoring annual earnings would not automatically replace that lost buffer. Federal Reserve: US Family Finances, 2007–2010.

These measures describe different populations and concepts; repeated population medians do not follow the same family over time. They nevertheless demonstrate why the start of economic expansion cannot establish household restoration.

Measuring the capacity to live from income

We propose tracking real disposable income, employment and hours, essential expenditure, debt service, and accessible savings. A useful supplementary measure is the money remaining after taxes, necessities, and required debt payments, compared consistently across income groups, household sizes, and housing tenure.

This proposed assessment complements existing income and poverty statistics. Its governing distinction is simple: report improvement from the trough separately from recovery to the pre-crisis level. The historical evaluation here uses US experience; Argentina’s ongoing stabilization is discussed below only as a fiscal and monetary policy example.

3. Fiscal Dominance: When Public Financing Constrains Monetary Protection

Fiscal dominance arises when government financing needs constrain monetary policy, potentially subordinating purchasing-power protection to expenditure or debt requirements. It need not involve a formal violation of a central-bank charter: legal arrangements themselves can permit political influence.

Historical example: war financing and the Treasury–Fed Accord, 1942–1951

In 1942, the Fed committed to a 0.375% Treasury-bill rate and implicitly capped long-term Treasury yields at 2.5% to facilitate war financing. Defending those rates required government-security purchases and constrained control of money creation. After the war, anti-inflation objectives conflicted with continued support for cheap government borrowing. The 1951 Accord separated debt management from monetary policy. Federal Reserve History: Treasury–Fed Accord.

The mechanism matters for households because keeping government borrowing inexpensive can conflict with protecting purchasing power when restraint becomes necessary. This episode illustrates the institutional pressure; it does not isolate money growth’s contribution to postwar inflation or establish that war financing alone explains the inflation culminating decades later in 1981.

Argentina: an ongoing institutional comparison

Argentina’s central-bank charter establishes multiple objectives within the framework of national government policies. Formal legal compliance does not guarantee effective monetary autonomy. BCRA: Charter.

Under Javier Milei, monthly inflation declined from 25.5% in December 2023 to 1.7% in August 2026. December 2023 included the start of his administration and its initial adjustment, so it should not be treated as a wholly inherited monthly outcome. INDEC: December 2023; INDEC: August 2026.

The OECD’s 2025 assessment identifies fiscal consolidation, discontinuation of monetary financing, and the exchange-rate anchor among the program’s components. This supports examining fiscal and monetary consistency rather than attributing disinflation to a single measure. It is an assessment of that stage of the program, not an explanation of every subsequent monthly outcome or proof of completed household recovery. OECD: Argentina Economic Survey 2025.

4. Stabilization: Who Bears the Cost of Restoring Price Stability?

Persistent inflation makes wages, savings, and contracts less reliable. Correcting it can also impose losses through expensive credit, reduced hiring, and business closures. Both effects belong in the assessment.

Historical example: the Volcker disinflation, 1979–1983

The Federal Reserve’s historical account links the 1981–1982 recession to tightening against entrenched inflation. Earlier reversals between restraint and easing had weakened the credibility of its anti-inflation commitment. Sustained tightening helped reduce inflation while placing substantial pressure on borrowing-dependent activity. Federal Reserve History: Recession of 1981–1982.

BLS recorded unemployment of 10.8% at the end of 1982. Housing, automobiles, steel, and their suppliers were particularly affected. Black unemployment exceeded 20% during the final three months of the year. BLS: Unemployment Continued to Rise in 1982.

In 1983, median family income increased 4.9% nominally but only 1.6% after inflation, its first statistically significant real increase since 1978. This established renewed improvement without, by itself, establishing recovery of previous losses. Census Bureau: Money Income in 1983.

A worker who retained employment could benefit from slower price increases, while a worker who lost a job could face a much larger immediate income loss. National averages obscure that difference.

Evaluating the policy and the alternative

Stabilization should be assessed over a defined period against a plausible alternative. Comparing tightening with an imagined world of unchanged employment and effortlessly disappearing inflation is misleading. Claiming that every observed loss was unavoidable is equally unsupported by a simple before-and-after comparison.

The evaluation should ask whether price stability endures, real income and employment recover, and losses remain concentrated in particular communities. Targeted assistance should be judged by whether it helps people through the transition without creating an open-ended financing requirement inconsistent with stabilization.

Higher rates cannot directly produce missing energy, housing, or imported inputs. Restricting demand may limit the propagation of price pressures, but the original supply constraint still requires attention.

5. Financial Fragility: How Apparent Calm Can Threaten Deposits and Jobs

Predictable financing can become dangerous when borrowers treat an expected policy path as a guarantee. An intermediary may fund long-duration assets with obligations that can be withdrawn or repriced quickly. Low measured volatility and rising collateral values may permit additional borrowing. If funding becomes expensive or disappears, forced sales can realize losses and trigger further collateral demands.

An illustrative institution with assets of 100, liabilities of 90, and equity of 10 loses half its equity if assets fall to 95 while liabilities remain unchanged. A 5% asset loss can therefore become a 50% equity loss. This arithmetic illustrates leverage; it does not describe a particular bank.

Historical example: Silicon Valley Bank, 2023

The Federal Reserve’s review identified management failures, reliance on uninsured deposits, a concentrated business model, and inadequate preparation for interest-rate and liquidity risks. It also identified supervisory shortcomings. These findings support scrutiny of funding structure and governance, without establishing that forward guidance alone caused the failure. Federal Reserve: SVB Review.

A depositor may need money on payday even when the bank’s assets repay much later. Eventual repayment does not guarantee immediate cash availability. Fragility becomes a household problem when it disrupts deposits, payrolls, business credit, or employment.

Liquidity support, solvency, and accountability

Temporary liquidity assistance can protect viable activity from a funding disruption. Repeated support that conceals losses or sustains institutions without a credible route to viability can instead perpetuate dependence. Liquidity alone cannot repair insolvency. BIS: Solvency Requirements for Emergency Liquidity Support.

Intervention should therefore be assessed by eligibility, loss allocation, management accountability, and exit conditions. Depositors, creditors, owners, and managers have different claims and responsibilities. Protecting essential financial functions should be evaluated separately from preserving the position of every stakeholder.

6. Statistics, Political Narratives, and Institutional Credibility

Manipulated statistics, selective presentation, and incomplete indicators are different problems. Apparent stability can coexist with vulnerability because models omit exposures, assumptions are optimistic, or incentives reward risk. Deliberate falsification requires separate evidence.

What employment and inflation statistics actually measure

The international one-hour employment criterion includes people who perform even limited work for pay or profit during the reference period. It measures participation in employment, not adequate earnings. Receiving a transfer alone does not make someone employed. Unemployment figures should therefore be read alongside earnings, hours, involuntary underemployment, and working poverty. ILO: Employment Definition; ILO: Interpreting the Unemployment Rate.

Likewise, national CPI averages need not match a particular household’s experience. A family spending an unusually large share on rapidly rising medical or housing costs can face greater inflation than the average without the index being falsified. Methodological changes should be transparent and preserve meaningful comparisons. BLS: CPI Questions and Answers.

Historical example: Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” campaign, 1974–1975

Launched on October 8, 1974, WIN encouraged Americans to combat inflation through saving, reduced waste, and changes in consumption. The Ford Presidential Library describes its emphasis on individual responsibility and collective action. Public support faded as promised results failed to materialize, and the campaign ended in March 1975. Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library and Museum: WIN Campaign.

The case illustrates political framing and the limits of public mobilization. An appeal to personal discipline must still be tested against the mechanisms producing inflation. It is not evidence that Ford intended to encourage inflation or falsified statistics.

Turning claims into tests

Public claims should specify a baseline, a time horizon, beneficiaries, and costs. Our proposed tests are:

• “Inflation has fallen”: compare cumulative prices with real incomes and essential expenditure.

• “Employment has improved”: examine hours, earnings, participation, and job durability.

• “Credit supports growth”: assess productive capacity, operating cash flow, and debt service.

• “Support is temporary”: identify exit conditions and the response if recipients remain unviable.

Credibility depends on consistency between stated objectives, decisions, and observable results. Revising a forecast as evidence changes can be appropriate. Concealing assumptions, shifting comparison periods selectively, or denying documented costs provides stronger grounds for concern.

7. Investment and Industry Survival: Lessons from the Great Depression

Financial survival depended on maintaining income, accessible liquidity, and manageable debt while spending and credit collapsed. An essential product helped, but neither an industry label nor continued company operations guaranteed shareholder protection.

Treasury securities, cash, and the burden of debt

From the beginning of 1929 through the end of 1932, historical data imply approximate cumulative nominal returns of +11.5% for Treasury bills, +15.5% for ten-year Treasury bonds, and −64.8% for equities. The bond comparison includes income and price changes, and the equity series includes dividends. These are specific calendar-period comparisons, not peak-to-trough results or a permanent hierarchy of safe assets. NYU: Historical Investment Returns.

Between autumn 1930 and winter 1933, the money supply fell by nearly 30% amid banking crises. Deflation increased debt burdens and contributed to bankruptcies and unemployment. Federal Reserve History: The Great Depression.

Cash gained purchasing power as prices fell, but deposits in failing banks presented a separate access risk. A family could face lower income while owing the same mortgage payment. A company could receive less for its products while its nominal debts remained unchanged.

Liquidity mattered because it allowed households to meet expenses and businesses to pay workers without selling assets at distressed prices. An apparently cheap asset could remain dangerous if its owner ran out of money before recovery.

Essential products and affordable alternatives

Food and hygiene remained necessary, but necessity did not create purchasing power. Business resilience depended on whether customers could afford the product and whether the seller could maintain margins and finance operations.

P&G’s introduction of Dreft in 1933 documents continued innovation during the Depression. Radio provides a different example: the Library of Congress reports that annual radio advertising expenditure in 1933 was seven times its 1927 level. Radio offered repeated entertainment at home, although its expansion also reflected adoption of a relatively new medium. P&G: Company History; Library of Congress: Radio and Broadcast Advertising.

These cases illustrate recurring needs and shifts toward accessible alternatives. They do not establish returns for every business in those industries.

Historical example: IBM and Social Security administration, 1937

Social Security payroll reporting required records for approximately 26 million workers and 3.5 million employers. IBM developed machinery, including its 077 Collator, to help process the workload. The case combined an operational need, useful technology, and a public buyer. Social Security Administration: Early Automation.

Our inference is that identifying the payer is as important as identifying the need. Household consumption, corporate investment, and public procurement respond differently to crises. Government contracts can support productive capacity while also creating concentration and policy risks.

Business continuity, investor returns, and household welfare

An enterprise can continue after restructuring while previous shareholders lose their investment. It can restore profitability through layoffs or wage reductions while its workers remain worse off. Purchase price, dividends, dilution, debt maturity, and the investor’s ability to wait all matter.

The historical examples therefore establish survival mechanisms rather than a ranked list of superior industries. A stronger ranking would require comparable evidence on profits, bankruptcies, employment, and total returns, including failed firms. Subsequent wartime expansion must also be distinguished from resilience during the Depression.

For households, concentrating savings in the same employer or industry that provides their income can make one downturn damage both resources simultaneously. Financial endurance requires examining that combined exposure, rather than judging investments in isolation.

8. Alternative Scenarios: Preparing for Recovery, Inflation, or Renewed Stress

Historical example: the recovery reversed in 1937–1938

After several years of recovery, the United States entered another recession in May 1937. The Federal Reserve’s historical account reports a 10% decline in real GDP and a 32% fall in industrial production. It discusses tighter reserve requirements, Treasury gold sterilization, and fiscal contraction as contributing explanations, while acknowledging debate over their relative importance. Federal Reserve History: Recession of 1937–1938.

Recovery can reverse before households rebuild their reserves. Planning only for continued improvement leaves people and businesses exposed to renewed income losses. This supports testing adverse scenarios without implying that every withdrawal of support causes recession or that assistance should continue indefinitely.

The following scenarios are conditional assessments, not forecasts or ranked investment recommendations.

Deflationary contraction

Falling sales and incomes increase the burden of fixed nominal debts. Accessible cash can gain purchasing power, while job losses and defaults undermine borrowers. High-quality nominal claims may benefit from falling yields, subject to issuer solvency and sensitivity to interest-rate changes.

Monitor employment, arrears, defaults, credit availability, and deposit access. For businesses, preserving cash and matching debt maturities to cash generation become central.

Persistent inflation with weak real-income growth

Salaries and sales rise nominally without necessarily improving living standards or profits. Cash loses purchasing power, while higher input costs pressure businesses unable to pass them on. Pricing power depends on customers’ ability to pay.

Fixed-rate debt becomes more manageable only if the borrower’s income improves sufficiently; floating rates and refinancing can offset the benefit. Monitor real earnings, essential costs, margins, and debt repricing.

Disinflation accompanied by financial stress

Inflation falls, but previous borrowing decisions become expensive to maintain. Long-duration assets may retain losses from an earlier rise in yields, while institutions face withdrawals or refinancing pressure.

Monitor cash needs, asset losses, collateral demands, and funding concentration. Temporary liquidity may preserve viable activity; persistent insolvency requires loss recognition and restructuring.

Durable recovery

Inflation stabilizes, real incomes improve, employment becomes more secure, and businesses generate cash without increasing dependence on exceptional assistance. Evidence should extend beyond asset-price gains to household reserves, debt affordability, and access to necessities.

This is an evaluation benchmark, not a claim that any historical recovery satisfied every condition for every household.

The Practical Test of Monetary Credibility

Monetary decisions shape what households and businesses can earn, afford, preserve, and plan. Their effects extend beyond the inflation rate to the timing of wages, the security of deposits, the availability of work, and the burden of debt.

The practical test is whether people can meet their obligations from sustainable income while retaining enough flexibility to withstand an adverse change. Stable prices contribute to that capacity; household recovery establishes how far the benefits have reached.

References:

IMF Note and Monetary Policy Framework

1. Adrian, Tobias. (2026). Current Issues in Forward Guidance. IMF Note 2026/008. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. August.

2. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Monetary Policy: What Are Its Goals? How Does It Work?. Monetary Policy Principles and Practice.

3. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Policy Tools.

4. McLeay, Michael, Amar Radia, and Ryland Thomas. (2014). Money Creation in the Modern Economy. Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin, Q1.

Household Income, Wealth, and Employment

5. Proctor, Bernadette D., Jessica L. Semega, and Melissa A. Kollar. (2016). Income and Poverty in the United States: 2015. Current Population Reports, P60-256. US Census Bureau. September 13.

6. Bricker, Jesse, Arthur B. Kennickell, Kevin B. Moore, and John Sabelhaus. (2012). Changes in U.S. Family Finances from 2007 to 2010: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin, 98(2). June.

7. US Census Bureau. (1985). Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States: 1983. Current Population Reports, P60-146.

8. Urquhart, Michael A., and Marillyn A. Hewson. (1983). Unemployment Continued to Rise in 1982 as Recession Deepened. Monthly Labor Review. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. February.

US Monetary and Economic History

9. Richardson, Gary. (2013). The Great Depression. Federal Reserve History.

10. Waiwood, Patricia. (2013). Recession of 1937–38. Federal Reserve History.

11. Romero, Jessie. (2013). The Treasury-Fed Accord. Federal Reserve History.

12. Sablik, Tim. (2013). Recession of 1981–82. Federal Reserve History.

13. Weinberg, John. The Great Recession and Its Aftermath. Federal Reserve History.

Emergency Liquidity, Banking Risk, and Supervision

14. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023). Federal Reserve Board Announces It Will Make Available Additional Funding to Eligible Depository Institutions to Help Assure Banks Have the Ability to Meet the Needs of All Their Depositors. Press release announcing the Bank Term Funding Program. March 12.

15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023). Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement. March 22.

16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2023). Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank: Key Takeaways. April report; webpage updated May 17.

17. Financial Stability Institute, Bank for International Settlements. Solvency as a Requirement for Emergency Liquidity Support. FSI Briefs, No. 29.

Statistical Interpretation and Political Communication

18. International Labour Organization. (2016). Employment. Statistical definition. April 14.

19. International Labour Office, Department of Statistics. (2019). Quick Guide on Interpreting the Unemployment Rate. Geneva: ILO.

20. US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Consumer Price Index Frequently Asked Questions.

21. Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library and Museum. Whip Inflation Now: WIN Campaign. Historical research guide.

Investment Returns and Business History

22. Damodaran, Aswath. Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds and Bills. NYU Stern School of Business. Historical investment-return dataset; the article uses observations for 1929–1932.

23. Procter & Gamble. P&G History: A Legacy of Forward-Thinking. Corporate history.

24. Library of Congress. Radio and Broadcast Advertising. Research guide on consumer advertising during the Great Depression.

25. DeWitt, Larry. (2000). Early Automation Challenges for SSA. Research Note No. 6, Historian’s Office, Social Security Administration. April.

Argentina: Fiscal and Monetary Institutions and Stabilization

26. Banco Central de la República Argentina. Carta Orgánica. Institutional legal framework.

27. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. (2024). Índice de precios al consumidor (IPC). Cobertura nacional. Diciembre de 2023. Buenos Aires: INDEC. January.

28. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos. (2026). Índice de precios al consumidor (IPC). Cobertura nacional. Agosto de 2026. Buenos Aires: INDEC. September 10.

29. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2025). Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Challenges. In OECD Economic Surveys: Argentina 2025. OECD Publishing.