The Bank of Korea modeled a pessimistic scenario in which reduced AI infrastructure investment by major U.S. technology companies could leave South Korean semiconductor exports $50 billion–$100 billion below earlier 2027 forecasts.
According to the central bank's response to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, the scenario assumes a 10% decline in Korean semiconductor unit prices and could reduce South Korea's GDP growth by approximately 0.4 percentage point.
Reuters also reported that semiconductor exports account for roughly half of Korean exports and that the central bank expects considerable uncertainty around future AI demand.
These figures describe a conditional downside scenario, not the Bank of Korea's central forecast; the underlying modeling document was not independently reviewed for this briefing. Reuters
Source: Reuters — Bank of Korea AI Investment Risk Assessment, October 27
Why it matters strategically
South Korea's semiconductor industry is benefiting from substantial investment in AI infrastructure.
However, the concentration of export growth in one technologically intensive sector introduces macroeconomic vulnerability.
A reduction in U.S. technology companies' capital expenditure could affect several variables simultaneously.
Semiconductor demand could weaken.
Memory prices could decline.
Corporate earnings and capital expenditure could deteriorate.
Export revenue and the current account could weaken.
These effects would not necessarily occur simultaneously or proportionally.
