The National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. pending home sales fell 7.3% month over month and 11.3% year over year in September 2026, reaching the lowest index level since the series began in 2001.
The decline affected all four major U.S. regions, with rising mortgage rates identified as an important factor.
Separately, the United States Census Bureau reported that September housing starts fell 5.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million units.
However, the Census Bureau's reported sampling uncertainty means the monthly decline in housing starts was not statistically distinguishable from zero, an important limitation when interpreting the headline figure. National Association of REALTORS®
Primary sources: National Association of Realtors — October 20 · U.S. Census Bureau — September construction data
Why it matters strategically
Housing is particularly sensitive to financing conditions.
Higher mortgage rates reduce purchasing power and can discourage transactions even when employment and household incomes remain relatively stable.
The consequences extend beyond home sales.
Construction companies, building-material suppliers, mortgage lenders, and consumer-durable manufacturers can all experience changes in demand.
However, the relationship is not mechanically linear.
Reduced construction activity can eventually constrain housing supply, potentially limiting future price declines.
The timing of financing conditions, construction decisions, and completed housing supply therefore matters.
