The World Bank released its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasting a 23% increase in overall commodity prices during 2026 and a 32% increase in energy prices.
The institution expects Brent crude to average $91 per barrel in 2026 before declining to $79 in 2027 under its baseline scenario.
Food commodity prices are projected to rise approximately 10% in 2026 and another 7% in 2027.
In an adverse scenario involving additional energy disruption, Black Sea grain-shipping problems, and severe El Niño conditions, Brent could average $105 per barrel in 2027 while food prices could exceed the baseline by 12%. World Bank
Primary source: World Bank — Commodity Markets Outlook, October 28, 2026
Why it matters strategically
The report highlights the interaction between geopolitical disruptions, energy markets, agricultural production, and international trade.
The consequences extend beyond direct fuel costs.
Energy prices affect fertilizer production, industrial manufacturing, transportation, and agricultural logistics.
Food prices are also influenced by weather conditions, shipping availability, and export restrictions.
These mechanisms can reinforce one another.
For an industrial company, the relevant risk may therefore be broader than a single commodity-price increase.
